STAGFLATION IN THE FORECAST: THE TARIFFS ARE HERE (UPDATED)

TRUMP'S APRIL 2, 2025 TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT (Adjusted for Trade-Weighted Tariffs)

LIBERATION DAY REALITY

Until President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement today, most Wall Street analysts and business leaders had maintained skepticism about the full implementation of his sweeping tariff threats. Many believed his aggressive trade rhetoric represented more of a negotiating tactic than an imminent policy reality. Market reactions over the past weeks reflected this sentiment, with investors largely pricing in a more modest tariff program or expecting last-minute compromises that would soften the economic impact.

This perception was shattered today with the implementation of one of the most comprehensive tariff regimes in modern American history. The scope and scale of the tariffs announced exceed most analysts' expectations, especially regarding the targeted higher rates for specific countries and the broad application across product categories. The stock market's sharp negative reaction after hours — with major indexes dropping 2-3% — underscores the business commu…