December 2025 Update
It’s been a while since we looked at CPI. The headline number finally dipped below 3%—November came in at 2.7%. Progress, technically. But if you’re waiting for the Fed’s 2% target to become reality, I’d suggest finding a comfortable chair.
We’re in a different world now. De-globalization. Massive government debt. The structural floor on inflation is higher than it used to be. The only way to get meaningfully below current levels is through economic deterioration, and that will create problems that will make us reminisce about the good ole days of 3% inflation.
The Restaurant Demographic Gap
Headline CPI is range-bound & restaurant inflation hasn’t moved. Food Away from Home sits at 3.7%—same as September.
The breakdown:
Category YoY Inflation Headline CPI 2.7% Food Away from Home 3.7% Full-Service Dining 4.2% L…
