The 2024 Population Shake-Up
Where America is Growing, Shrinking, and Eating
As the U.S. Census Bureau releases its 2024 population estimates, clear trends emerge: smaller cities like Princeton, Texas, and Fulshear, Texas, are booming, while long-established urban areas like Jackson, Mississippi, and Eureka, California, are experiencing steady population losses.
For the restaurant industry, these shifts carry significant implications. As highlighted in the recent SignalFlare.ai presentation at the National Restaurant Association’s Marketing Executives Group (MEG), Dining Disrupted: The New Restaurant Landscape, restaurant units have grown 17.3% from 2019 to 2030, far outpacing overall population growth of just 6.5%. This means fewer potential customers per restaurant, creating both challenges and opportunities for operators.
In this piece, we’ll explore the fastest-growing and shrinking cities of 2024, their top dining spots. This is a follow-up from the original article - The Restaurant Industry’s Growing Overcapacity Problem
Fastest-Growing Cities of 2024
The 2024 data highlights some standout cities leading the charge in population growth:
Princeton, Texas (+30.6%) - A once-sleepy community is now one of the fastest-growing cities in America. Known for local favorites like Scrambler Café and Jocy’s Restaurant, this Collin County city is attracting new residents with its affordable housing and small-town charm.
Fulshear, Texas (+26.9%) - Nestled just outside of Houston, Fulshear has seen a boom driven by upscale developments like Cross Creek Ranch. Dining hotspots like Ray’s Grill and Dekker’s Mesquite Grill have become local institutions, offering a taste of Texas to the thousands of new residents.
Leesburg, Florida (+18.5%) - Known as the "Lakefront City," Leesburg has grown rapidly thanks to its prime location in the Orlando metropolitan area. Popular eateries like Prime 3 Steakhouse and Rodello’s Italian Restaurant are helping fuel the town's culinary scene.
Celina, Texas (+18.2%) - This rapidly expanding Dallas suburb is known for its tight-knit community and standout restaurants like Tender Smokehouse and Lucy’s on the Square, both offering authentic Texas flavors.
Anna, Texas (+14.6%) - Another North Texas boomtown, Anna’s growth has spurred the opening of local favorites like Crow’s Country Café and Joe’s Italian Bistro.
Cities with the Biggest Population Declines
However, not all cities are riding the wave of population growth. Some communities are seeing a significant outflow of residents, presenting unique challenges for local businesses, including restaurants:
Coronado, California (-3.36%) - Known for its iconic beach, historic Hotel del Coronado, and military base, this affluent city near San Diego has experienced a surprising decline.
Greenville, Mississippi (-2.04%) - Once a hub of Delta blues and river commerce, Greenville faces economic challenges despite its rich cultural heritage.
Mooresville, North Carolina (-1.87%) - Known as "Race City USA" for its ties to NASCAR, Mooresville has seen a modest population dip, reflecting broader shifts in regional growth.
Jackson, Mississippi (-1.42%) - The state capital has struggled with infrastructure issues and economic stagnation, contributing to its ongoing population loss.
Boone, North Carolina (-1.33%) - Home to Appalachian State University, Boone's population drop is surprising given its reputation as a vibrant college town.
West Memphis, Arkansas (-1.15%) - Located just across the Mississippi River from Memphis, Tennessee, this industrial city has faced decades of population decline.
Eureka, California (-1.14%) - Known for its Victorian architecture and redwood forests, Eureka has seen a slow but steady population decline.
Newark, California (-1.13%) - Despite its proximity to Silicon Valley, Newark has struggled to retain residents amid high living costs.
Twentynine Palms, California (-1.06%) - Best known for its Marine Corps base and as a gateway to Joshua Tree National Park, this desert city has seen a slight population drop.
St. Louis, Missouri (-1.02%) - Once a booming industrial hub, St. Louis has faced decades of population loss despite efforts to revitalize its downtown area.
Conclusion
The 2024 census data makes it clear that population trends are reshaping the restaurant industry. In rapidly growing cities, operators have the chance to capture new customers and expand their footprint. In shrinking markets, the focus will need to shift to customer retention, localized marketing, and operational efficiency.
Ultimately, the restaurant businesses that best adapt to their local realities will be the ones that thrive in the decade ahead.
Appendix I
“Top Restaurant” is based on Google & Yelp reviews
Appendix II
